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Before the 1990 season, handicap NFL might have a constant planning: with the exception of principle, all teams in the league played each one week of the regular season.
Teams do not necessarily play every Sunday, of course – games on Thanksgiving Day and the Monday night parties were part of the programming. But mostly, all the teams in the league had a similar amount of time for rest and preparation for your next party.
That all changed in 1990, when the brain trust of the league came up with an original idea to increase the length of the season – which increases the potential income TV advertising contracts and lucrative – with-Fully to add games to what already was a grueling schedule of 16 regular season games.
From week 4 of the 1990 season, the NFL began a rotation schedule to review the week. 4 teams were at the same time – most often in the same division – For a total of 7 weeks, when only 24 different teams playing.
The concept has proved very popular in their first 3 years of the league decided to use expand the number of weeks goodbye to two in 1993 (16 games played over 18 weeks).
This week, extra width was too disturbing for coaches and the players and the schedule is back to 16 games in 17 weeks in 1994, where he has remained ever since.
The questions asked from the difference of points are fairly obvious: Teams coming off a bye week has an advantage over an opponent with only 6 days rest? And the teams are more likely to emerge stronger after a week off? Those with a history of winning or losing records, teams that lost last week, or who won?
Exactly how teams to respond to an additional bye week is a subject I have studied closely in recent seasons and the results of this research has a number of trends cost were very effective against the spread in the last 15 years.
Most of these trends imply that teams are either leaving a bad result the last game before, or have any glaring offensive or defensive deficiencies tend to improve dramatically when players and coaches have luxury one more week to work on them.
This situation, which brings together the equipment is a farewell to a major offensive against the ruling Holding average (OHPA> 1.6). The teams in this position are an impressive 65 to 29 (69.1%) ATS since 2001.
This article happens to be a "mere systems, but I do not think any of you taking the time to calculate on a weekly basis OHPA (Above the tendency to be an article foreground future situation).
This article implies, in particular the situation where a team coming off a bye week which was immediately preceded by a loss clutch.
Those of you who have read some of my other items that probably met my definition of "clutch gains and losses front, but for those who do not – clutch loss occurs when a team gives up what appears to be the outcome of the game, either in the 4 th quarter or overtime, moving into a tie or win the position on a losing team.
This combined with a disappointing defeat the week immediately outside after it appears to be a motivating factor for teams in the first game played after the pass.
The teams coming out of the situation previous was 39 to 14 (73.6%) ATS since 1994 with a gain of $ 2,360, when you bet $ 110 to $ 100 back in each game.
There is also a condition secondary can be included in this trend to further strengthen results. This condition implies the exclusion of all teams that have had greater or equal to the number of rushing yards in his clutch loss before the dismissal. Once this condition is added, we find a situation that was a solid 24-3 ATS since 1994.
Here are all the details.
(Notes: TME represents average side note a positive score indicates a trend is stronger than average compared with the line. negative – weaker than average. SITD% is the percentage of teams in the league who have been involved in this situation at one time or another. Weight% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread of the teams in this situation. For more details, if you please see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)
System # 84 Summary
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) The team is coming off a bye week.
2) Last game was a loss of clutch (CL).
Secondary conditions (stretchers)
1) Last game Rushing against Shipyard> for (RYA RYF>).
Statistics System
TME: -1.3
% Home: 58.6
Dog%: 55.2
SITD%: 62.5
Weight%: 34.5
SPR: 1.20
Top teams: IND (3), Central African Republic (2), CIN (2), DET (2)
Registries
In general (from 94): 24-3 ATS
2007 Season: 3-0 ATS
2006 Season: 2-1 ATS
2005 Season: 2-0 ATS
2004 Season: 0-0 ATS
Last 3 results. Choose between parentheses.
2007 WK11 – PIT NYJ 19 16 (9.5 NYJ) W
WK9 2007 – SF 20 16 ATL (ATL -3) W
WK5 2007 – was 34 DET 3 (a -3.5) W
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com